May 8, 2025

In grocery aisles from California to Texas to Florida, a shift is quietly reshaping the American consumer landscape: Hispanic shoppers — long one of the most powerful growth engines for food and beverage brands — are pulling back.

Executives from Coca-Cola, Constellation Brands, Colgate-Palmolive, and others have flagged a slowdown in spending among Hispanic consumers, warning that the dip is already weighing on North American sales. At a time when the U.S. Latino economy has ballooned to $3.6 trillion, such a reversal is drawing concern from Wall Street to Washington.

“The fact is, a lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now,” Constellation Brands CEO Bill Newlands said in an April earnings call. “Over half are concerned relative to immigration issues and how those impact [them]. A number of them are concerned about job losses in industries that have a high Latino employment base.”

It’s not just beer. From cooking oils to toothpaste to soda, companies are watching sales stagnate or fall in categories historically buoyed by Hispanic households. Analysts say a mix of economic strain, immigration policy anxiety, and cultural shifts is reshaping spending habits — and giving corporate America a wake-up call.

A $3.6 Trillion Market, Suddenly Cautious

Latinos make up about 20% of the U.S. population and are the nation’s second-largest and second-fastest-growing ethnic group, according to Census Bureau data. For years, brands have turned to this demographic to fuel sales growth. In 2022 alone, the U.S. Latino economy grew by $400 billion, according to the Latino Donor Collaborative.

And for many companies, Latino consumers are not just a part of the market — they are the market.

Take Constellation Brands, whose Modelo Especial dethroned Bud Light as America’s top-selling beer. More than half of Modelo drinkers are Hispanic. The company also owns Corona, another Latino favorite.

But this year, Constellation downgraded its outlook, citing weaker-than-expected demand — and particularly a decline in Hispanic spending.

“Things like social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer, are declining today,” Newlands noted.

Constellation isn’t alone. Keurig Dr Pepper, whose Latin American-rooted brands like Squirt, Clamato and Peñafiel are staples in many Hispanic households, is seeing fewer shopping trips and smaller baskets.

“When you dig into that, you see that manifesting both in terms of fewer trips and lower spend per trip,” CEO Tim Cofer told analysts in late April. “Hispanic consumers make up a meaningful percentage of our business and the broader CPG category.”

Policy, Perception, and Fear

Executives are linking the slowdown to more than just economic inflation. Some point to growing fear and uncertainty around U.S. immigration policies.

While President Biden has overseen more deportations than Donald Trump at the same point in their presidencies, ICE detention numbers are up — and the White House has recently echoed hard-line rhetoric on the border.

Though Coca-Cola maintained its annual forecast, CEO James Quincey noted that the company took a hit from a viral social media rumor falsely accusing it of reporting undocumented workers to immigration authorities. The fallout, he said, hurt traffic — especially in Southern states.

“Some of the geopolitical tension and Hispanic pullback also affected the Mexican [market], particularly the border region, which is very connected to the U.S.,” Quincey added.

The political climate is changing behavior in other ways too. “It’s a bit miserable at the moment because our key customer is Hispanic and is feeling nervous and fearful, and they’re cutting back on expenditure,” said Associated British Foods CEO George Weston, whose company makes Mazola cooking oils.

“It feels really recessionary in parts of the U.S. market.”

A Broader Cultural Shift?

Consumer research firm Circana notes that Hispanic Americans, on average, outspend non-Hispanic consumers on packaged goods. But that trend is showing signs of strain.

A Goldman Sachs report using HundredX data pointed to a sharp decline in Hispanic net purchase intent in January, a metric that tracks whether consumers plan to buy more or less from a brand. That trend has since moderated, but the concern remains.

Even oral care is feeling the squeeze. Colgate-Palmolive, whose products are ubiquitous in Hispanic households, reported a 2.3% volume decline in North America in Q1 and cited diminished traffic from Hispanic consumers.

John Faucher, head of investor relations, said at a March investor conference that the pullback is being seen “across the business.”

And in the alcohol category, Boston Beer Company — maker of Sam Adams and Truly — also saw a dip in Latino engagement.

“The macroeconomic winds are obviously the consumer confidence, the fear of inflation; there is also some pullback from the Hispanic consumers that they’re just not going out as much,” said CEO Michael Spillane.

Not All Brands Feeling the Pinch — Yet

Some companies are downplaying the trend, at least publicly. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said in February that stricter immigration policies had been a “nonevent” for their business — so far.

Still, for companies whose growth strategies are built on deeper engagement with Latino consumers, the slowdown is a flashing yellow light.

If the current pullback becomes a longer-term pattern, it could reshape how brands engage with one of America’s most vital consumer groups.

For Keurig Dr Pepper’s Cofer, the focus now is on adaptation. “We are closely tracking the dynamics,” he said. “It’s our job to earn back those trips and that basket.”